This paper introduces financial intermediaries, who engage in lending to firms for investments and buying public bonds issued by the government, and unconventional monetary policy in the form of quantitative easing or tightening into a rich New- Keynesian multi-sector E-DSGE model with production and investment networks. Due to the strong input-output linkages between sectors, almost all policies are found to be not effective in facilitating a green transition. The policies considered are sector-specific bank regulation policies, unconventional monetary policies, various carbon tax revenue recycling schemes, public green capital investment, and sector- specific investment tax/subsidy policies. Only if carbon tax revenues are used to build public green capital, thereby boosting productivity of the green sectors, the trade-off between achieving positive economic growth and reducing carbon emissions is fully resolved. Keywords: Production network, Investment network, Climate change, Financial intermediation, Financial stability, Stranded assets, Monetary policy JEL codes: E22, E32, E52, G21, L14, Q50. In addition to the significant increase in the public debt ratio over the last decades, another major change has been the substantial increase in the maturity of sovereign borrowing. This study is the first to investigate the impact of the term structure of public debt on fiscal sustainability. We adopt the widely used backward-looking measure of fiscal sustainability – fiscal responsiveness as proposed by Bohn (1998). Using data from De Graeve and Mazzolini (2023) and focusing on a sample of 19 most developed countries, we demonstrate that sovereign borrowing with maturity above 10 years significantly reduces fiscal responsiveness. Conversely, public debt with maturity between 3 and 5 years, which roughly aligns with the electoral cycle in many countries, is associated with the highest responsiveness of the primary balance to public debt. The findings indicate that the increase of long-term public debt since the beginning of this century has contributed to reducing fiscal responsiveness by half. Further analysis indicates that unconventional monetary policy, by suppressing yields at longer maturities, has likely played a key role in the discovered relationship. However, monetary easing has not been the sole factor explaining the negative impact of longer maturity of public debt on fiscal sustainability. Keywords: fiscal sustainability, public debt, debt maturity, interest rate. JEL codes: E62, C23, H30, H62, H63. In this paper, we use boosted forests method to identify the main childhood circumstances associated with inequality of opportunity in Europe. The five main factors that influence income are the education of parents, financial situation of the household, gender, country of birth, and degree of urbanisation. The ranking of those factors differs between countries; however, these top factors are at the highest importance in both 2011 and 2019 at the aggre- gate level. We show that countries can be grouped into regions by the main factors driving inequality of opportunity - Southern European countries (country of birth), Central Euro- pean countries (gender and highest education level of a parent), others (highest education level of a parent and financial situation). We also demonstrate that the importance score of various childhood circumstances is associated to the extent to which policies actively tackle these issues at the time of the respondents’ childhood. Furthermore, a correlation between reduction in inequality of opportunity between 2011 and 2019 and improvement in educa- tion quality and wider social support coupled with improvement in governance effectiveness between 1995-2000 and 2003-2008 is established. Keywords: Inequality of opportunity, childhood circumstances, inter-generational trans- mission of disadvantages, boosted forest, EU-SILC database JEL Codes: D31, D63, E24, C39, I14, I24 The Baltic states experienced the most substantial consumer price inflation of any of the EU countries shortly after the COVID-19 pandemic. The year-on-year all-items inflation rate averaged 11% from January 2021 to September 2023, peaking at around 22% in late 2022. This study examines how consumer price rigidity in the region during this period of high inflation differed from the preceding period of low inflation in 2019-2020. We use the detailed price records that underlie the official consumer price indexes to assess the frequency and the size margins of price changes. The average frequency of price changes increased by about four percentage points when inflation was high, as an increase of five percentage points in the frequency of price increases combined with a fall of one percentage point in the frequency of price cuts. The average size of price changes increased by 2.8 percentage points, mainly because the share of price increases changed. We further show that structural shocks in energy prices and aggregate demand contributed significantly to fluctuations in the inflation rate through the frequency of price changes during the period of high inflation. All this points to pricing being state-dependent in the Baltic states. Keywords: consumer price rigidity, price-setting, high inflation, frequency of price changes. JEL Codes: D40, E31. This study draws on employer-employee data for Latvia to investigate how participating in a job retention scheme (JRS) impacts the within-occupation composition of skills in participat- ing firms. The findings of this research reveal that involvement in JRS positively affects the likelihood of employees retaining their employment with the same firm after the end of the pro- gramme. This positive effect is independent of the employee’s skill level. However, individuals that perform higher-skilled tasks in the same occupation are less likely to participate in the JRS because of legal restrictions on the maximum amount of the benefit and the income replacement rate. Taken together, these findings suggest that JRSs may have a detrimental impact on the within-occupation composition of the skills of the workforce at the firms that participate in such schemes. Keywords: Job retention scheme, short-term work scheme, Covid-19, employment, skills JEL Codes: E24, H12, J62, J68 This paper studies the margins and heterogeneity of adjustments to trade shocks by estimating how Covid-19 restrictions affected imports and exports. We use data from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia on foreign trade at the level of the firm and the partner country and at monthly frequency from January 2019 to December 2020. The focus is on the short-term adjustment and on the first wave of the pandemic. We find that the adjustment to the restrictions mostly occurs through the intensive margin, meaning trade values are reduced rather than trade in cer- tain markets or products ceasing. It is further observed that quantity played a more important role in the adjustment process than prices and that both upstream and downstream restrictions played an equally important role in the decline of foreign trade. It is shown that differentiated products that are difficult to replace are responsible for this adjustment pattern. Keywords: transmission of shocks, input-output linkages, global value chains, Covid-19, work- place closing JEL codes: F14, F61, D22Patrick Grüning, Zeynep Kantur
António Afonso, José Alves, Oļegs Matvejevs, Oļegs Tkačevs
Ludmila Fadejeva, Krista Kalnbērziņa
Ludmila Fadejeva, Valentin Jouvanceau, Alari Paulus
Konstantīns Beņkovskis, Oļegs Tkačevs, Kārlis Vilerts
Konstantins Beņkovskis, Jaanika Meriküll, Aurelija Proškute
International working papers co-authored by the researchers of Latvijas Banka
Occasional Paper Series No 341 This paper studies the short-term and long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for productivity in Europe. Aggregate and sectoral evidence is complemented by firm-level data-based findings obtained from a large microdistributed exercise. Productivity trends during the COVID-19 pandemic differed from past trends. Labour productivity per hour worked temporarily increased, while productivity per employee declined across sectors given the widespread use of job retention schemes. The extensive margin of productivity growth was muted to some degree by the policy support granted to firms. Firm entries declined while firm exits increased much less than during previous crises. The pandemic had a significant impact on the intensive margin of productivity growth and led to a temporary drop in within-firm productivity per employee and increased reallocation. Job reallocation was productivity-enhancing but subdued compared to the Great Recession. As confirmed by a granular data analysis of the distribution of employment subsidies and loan guarantees and moratoria, job reallocation and also debt distribution and “zombie firm” prevalence were not significantly affected by the COVID-19 policy support. The pandemic and related lockdowns accelerated changes in consumer preferences and working habits with potential long-term effects. Generous government support muted the surge in unemployment and reduced permanent scarring effects. Keywords: labour productivity, productivity-enhancing reallocation, COVID-19, adjustment of firms, government support, cross-country analysis, micro-distributed JEL codes: D22, H25, J38, O47 Occasional Paper Series No 337 In the low inflation and low interest rate environment that prevailed over the period 2013-2020, many argued that besides expansionary monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy could also support central banks’ efforts to bring inflation closer to target. During the pandemic, proper alignment of fiscal and monetary policy was again crucial in promoting a rapid macroeconomic recovery. Since the end of 2021 an environment of higher inflation, lower growth, higher uncertainty, and higher interest rates has changed the nature of the required policy mix and poses different challenges to the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. Following up on the work done under the ECB’s 2020 strategy review (see Debrun et al., 2021), this report explores some of the renewed challenges to monetary and fiscal policy interactions in an environment of high inflation. The main general conclusion is that, with an independent monetary policy that aims to bring inflation back to target in a timely manner, it is still possible to design fiscal policy in a way that protects vulnerable parts of society against the costs of high inflation without pulling against the central bank’s effort to tame inflation. This is more likely to be the case if fiscal measures are temporary and targeted, and if priority is given to structural reforms and public investment in support of potential growth. The latter is particularly effective in reshaping the supply side of the economy in a manner that is likely to have a lasting positive structural impact. Key words: monetary policy, fiscal policy, public investment JEL code: E22, E52, E58, E62Co-authored by Oļegs Krasnopjorovs and Konstantīns Beņkovskis
exercise, EuropeCo-authored by Ginters Bušs